weather & society * integrated studies
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Norman WAS*IS Events Forum Listserv Links 4/2006 Workshop Summary Participants Presentations Readings NCAR Site Sponsors Vice President for Research College of Atmospheric and Geographic Sciences Institute for Communication Research Sasaki Institute NOAA NSSL Colloquium Series Department of Geography Center for Spatial Analysis Center for Applied Social Research © 2006, The Board of Regents of the University of Oklahoma Maintained by CSA |
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Overview and Paths Forward
The goal of the Norman WAS*IS workshop held on April 18-20, 2006, was to integrate and foster local research on weather and society by empowering practitioners across a broad spectrum of disciplines to forge alliances and develop joint projects. The motivation for the workshop was three-fold: 1) to get to know each other and find out who is doing what; 2) to develop substantive collaborations among Norman's weather and social science people; and 3) to enhance understanding of the Norman weather world.Below is a brief overview of the brainstorming sessions held at the Norman WAS*IS on April 18-20, 2006. General areas of future attention identified six areas of activity and collaboration: 1) sustainability of the Norman WAS*IS effort; 2) conveyance of forecast and warning uncertainty to the users of weather information; 3) improvement of the metrics used for measuring forecast and warning performance; 4) risk communication - analysis of risk vulnerability and production of a risk evaluation monitoring system; 5) Native American recruitment and retention; and 6) a NWS user/partner collaborative research simulation exercise.
1) Sustainability of the Norman WAS*IS Effort
- In the new National Weather Center, host a once-a-month specialty seminar on "Weather and Society" - speakers would be mostly non-meteorologists. The focus would be on broadening our interactions not only within academia at the university (economics, geography, communications, sociology, etc.) but also outside of academia, including speakers from the following communities - weather information stakeholders, policy makers, emergency managers, media, and perhaps international relations.
- NWC/NSSL Colloquium for Invited Speakers, perhaps fashioned after Boulder's Café Scientifique, which could be held off-site (restaurant, lounge, etc.)
- WAS*IS Norman web page, that would host all Norman WAS*IS meeting information, plus a library of useful links, journal readings, participant database, "Where am I?" updates, etc.
- Participate with Boulder WAS*IS in a bulletin board or blog on-line discussion
- Tie the Norman and Boulder WAS*IS through a workshop in a year or two
- Propose research projects that can serve as OU Capstone projects, and provide mentorship
- Devise a series of interdisciplinary, cross-listed graduate-level seminar courses at OU
- Provide continuing education on funding opportunities for interdisciplinary research involving social science, including the major funding agencies and NOAA
- Two basic questions: How well does the public understand forecasts and warnings? What information does the public need about forecast and warning uncertainty?
- Sub questions
- What information does the public need about forecast uncertainty and how do we convey it?
- How do we attach a probability to a particular type of severe weather or weather event?
- What are meaningful probabilities?
- How do we display probability (graphs, words, etc.)?
- How do we convey non-visual information and forecaster skill?
- How well do users understand the new polygon warnings?
- Do they know what to do with the information provided in the warnings?
- Are emergency managers too focused on worst-case scenarios to utilize the large amount of information provided to them? Should we provide them with a decision analysis process?
- Does the general public care about anything except special situations?
- Ideas
- Survey a spectrum of users to determine the approaches they find clear or useful
- Exercise care in not overwhelming users with information, but also respect their ability to absorb and process information
- Development or revision of the current 'metrics' system (e.g., False Alarm Ratio) so that post-event assessments better represent NWS performance and success and better target areas that need improvement
- Develop a prototype for sustainable weather risk vulnerability and devise an evaluation monitoring system for Oklahoma, and eventually, a national-surveillance system
- Increase Native American recruitment and retention in NOAA-related services through assessment of K-12 students' knowledge and understanding of career opportunities resulting in the development of effective recruitment and retention program
- This exercise would examine NWS user/partner decision making using NWS severe weather products and services.
- One day workshop in Norman - Sep. 2006 (no budget, donated time)
- Morning simulation featuring forecasters from SPC and Norman Forecast Office
- Review products/decision making for the 8 May 2003 Moore tornado event
- Focus on the communication of uncertainty and expertise in the forecasts
- Invited partners and users from the Oklahoma community
- School principals, day care providers, hospital officials, OU administration, stay at home moms/dads, emergency managers, media, etc
- Run through scripts of decision making for their area of expertise (e.g. initiating severe weather response plan, planning a picnic, outdoor graduation ceremony, etc)
- Scripts place users/partners in and around the path of the tornadic storm
- Users/partners fill out forms to record decision making in the simulation
- Evaluate need relative to NWS products and expertise
- Afternoon session featuring debriefing and discussion from users/partners perspectives and thoughts on improving user/partner decision making
- A distinct focus on identifying type of information users/partners need better access to and in what form
- Participation from NWC Hazardous Weather Testbed members
- Participation from the WAS*IS members to integrate with the public and partners
- Goal is to document what information users need and how do they need it